Operation Oscar - 2017

Best Picture
 
The nine films nominated for Best Picture were all fairly enjoyable. Hidden Figures is the film I liked the most and would most enjoy watching repeatedly, but I think Arrival is a better film. It’s unpredictable, and absolutely beautiful.  La La Land is unique and I love musicals. I thought the story and songs were good and I think the ending was well written. Moonlight has such great potential, but I felt like it was lacking something; it just felt a bit incomplete. Lion was a great story and Dev Patel is a great actor. Fences works much better as a play than a film, but the acting is incredible. Viola Davis is perfection. Manchester by the Sea is unnecessarily sad, but again great acting. Andrew Garfield’s performance in Hacksaw Ridge was really the only thing I enjoyed about the movie. The other performances (especially Vince Vaughn) were overacted and the script was trite at times. It’s another story with great potential, but it just isn’t a well made film. Hell or High Water seems out of place on this list. Not a bad movie, but in my opinion not one of the best films of the year. My ranking of the nine films is below.
 
Should Win: Arrival - I would be happy with Hidden Figures winning as well. Moonlight winning would be a nice way to makeup for Brokeback Mountain's loss in 2006.
Will Win: La La Land – This race seems to be pretty locked up. If anything could upset it would be Moonlight or even less likely, Hidden Figures, but either would be a fairly big surprise.
 

1. Arrival
2. Hidden Figures
3. La La Land
4. Moonlight
5. Lion
6. Fences
7. Manchester by the Sea
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water

 
Best Director
 
Should Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Will Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land – This should be a close race between Chazelle and Moonlight’s Barry Jenkins.
 
Best Actor
 
Should Win: Denzel Washington – Fences
Will Win: Denzel Washington – Fences­ – This is a close race between Washington and Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
 
Best Actress
 
Should Win: Isabelle Huppert – Elle – No disrespect to Huppert whose performance in Elle is incredible, but this is a weaker field than usual. I would love to have seen nominations for Amy Adams in Arrival and Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. I’m thrilled of course for Meryl Streep’s record breaking twentieth nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins.
Will Win: Emma Stone – La La Land – I think Stone will more than likely win, but don’t be surprised if Isabelle Huppert pulls off an upset.
 
Best Supporting Actor
 
Should Win: Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea – I thought Hedges’ performance was breathtaking and heartbreaking. I’m a big fan of Mahershala Ali, and will be happy for him to win, but I would love to see Hedges go home with the Oscar.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight – This seems to be a sure bet.
 
Best Supporting Actress
 
Should Win: Viola Davis – Fences – This is the easiest category for sure. Davis is brilliant in this role (just like she’s brilliant in everything). I wish more of the women from Hidden Figures had been nominated in this category, particularly Taraji P. Henson. Her scene time is incredibly short, but Laura Linney is phenomenal in Nocturnal Animals and I would’ve been happy to see her nominated as well.
Will Win: Viola Davis – Fences – This race is the one I’m most certain of. Davis will win her first Oscar.
 
Best Adapted Screenplay
 
Should Win: Eric Heisserer – Arrival
Will Win: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight – The screenplay categories are always some of the more unpredictable awards on Oscar night, but Jenkins seems to have this award in the bag.
 
Best Original Screeplay
 
Should Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land – The Lobster (Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos) is so weird, but really good. La La Land is a great script and film though, and I’d love to see him win.
Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea – Again, these categories can be hard to predict, but unless La La Land is really sweeping, I expect Lonergan to win.