The 96th annual Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, March 10, at 6:00 p.m. CDT. The show will be broadcast in the US on ABC. Over the last few months I’ve been busy watching films, including all of the nominated ones in this post. Here are my thoughts on the movies along with who I predict will win and who I’m rooting for.
BEST PICTURE Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where members rank each nominated film 1-10. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominated films this year, along with a brief review. 1. Barbie This movie was risky to make and the politics associated with both the Barbie doll and the film industry could’ve derailed it quickly. But, in the hands of Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, and an incredibly talented cast, it’s a masterpiece. My favorite movies are the ones that entertain while making us laugh, cry, and think deeply about life. This film does all of those things superbly. There’s poignant commentary without it being overly preachy or harsh. It’s what I would pick as the best and my favorite movie of 2023. 2. Past Lives This movie made me feel the same way and it did so in such an understated way. Celine Song’s direction and script in the capable hands of Greta Lee, Teo Yoo, and John Magaro create magic. This is a film that stuck with me for a long time and one I will watch over and over so that I can appreciate all the nuances of the writing and performances. It’s a beautiful movie. 3. Poor Things Yorgos Lanthimos is an interesting filmmaker. This movie could have been too weird, and maybe for some folks it is, but I loved it. Emma Stone and Willem Dafoe are exceptional, and once again we have a thought provoking film that is incredibly entertaining. My top 3 films this year are all neck and neck. 4. The Holdovers I thought this movie was cute, driven by an interesting and well-written story, plus great performances by the main cast. It was touching and well made. 5. The Zone of Interest This is another film that has stuck with me and I can’t stop thinking about it. It evokes the phrase, “the banality of evil” and encompasses that spirit so well. Much could be said about this movie and how it so accurately depicts the comfort of many while others experience torment and tragedy, but I will say this is a film I highly recommend. 6. Oppenheimer I think at this point the film length discourse is tired, but this definitely could have been cut some. I think it’s a well made movie and I’m a big fan of Christopher Nolan. For me personally, he’s made better films and there were better films put out this year. 7. Anatomy of a Fall I liked this movie, even though it was a bit slow for me at first. Once the trial begins around the midway mark of the film, it gets more interesting. Once again I think there are some great performances (especially Sandra Hüller) and I think it’s a well-written script. 8. Maestro I would’ve enjoyed this film more if it hadn’t been a biopic – and I’ll explain that. I think if one is going to make a biopic, then it should be fairly accurate. Otherwise, just write something from your own mind. Bradley Cooper is great here and Carey Mulligan is as well. 9. Killers of the Flower Moon As I mentioned with Oppenheimer, film length discourse is tired, but this one could also use some cuts. It’s a good movie – it just wasn’t my favorite of the year. 10. American Fiction I’ll start by saying this year is one of the best batches of movies I’ve seen collectively since Heather and I started doing Operation Oscar. I didn’t dislike this movie – it’s just that something had to be last on the list and for me, this was the weakest movie of the 10. I think parts of this movie are strong and much of the commentary is spot on, but there are places where it just doesn’t work completely. I also think much of the family storyline was superfluous – it just didn’t add to the movie for me. Prediction: Oppenheimer I think this is sewn up. I can’t see anything beating it at this point. BEST DIRECTOR My Pick: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer I think this race is a lock, too. I’m happy Nolan will finally get his Oscar. He’s a great filmmaker! Greta Gerwig (Barbie) absolutely belongs in this field. It would’ve put her in over Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). BEST ACTOR My Pick: Bradley Cooper, Maestro Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer I think Murphy is a safe bet, but don’t totally count out Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. BEST ACTRESS My Pick: Emma Stone, Poor Things Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon This race is neck and neck between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone – definitely the most suspenseful race in the top categories. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR My Pick: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer Prediction: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer Of the four acting categories, this is the weakest field. Downey, Jr. and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) both gave good performances. I would’ve nominated Willem Dafoe over Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS My Pick: America Ferrera, Barbie Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Randolph has pretty much swept this category this award season and I expect her to continue her streak. She’s wonderful. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) and Ferrera were also remarkable. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY My Pick: Barbie, Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach Prediction: American Fiction, Cord Jefferson This race seems to be between Jefferson and Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer). I think the Academy will split and award Jefferson this award and Nolan for Directing. Also, my take is that Barbie should’ve been in the Original Screenplay category. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY My Pick: Past Lives, Celine Song Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Truet & Arthur Harari I’m pretty confident that Anatomy of a Fall will win, but I’m not counting out The Holdovers (David Hemingson). Click Here to see my prediction in all 23 categories, or use the following link: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-winners-2024-predictions/ MISSING Of the many movies I saw from 2023, All of Us Strangers definitely deserved some love, especially Andrew Scott. I also really enjoyed Saltburn and You Hurt My Feelings plus Ben Wishaw's performance in Passages.
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The 95th Academy Awards will be presented tomorrow night at 7 p.m. CDT, Sunday, March 12. The show will be broadcast in the US on ABC. For the last few months I've been devouring as many films as I can to prepare for the show. Here are my thoughts on the nominees and my predictions of who I think will win. Best Picture Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review. 1. Everything Everywhere All At Once I loved this movie. There were 100 ways this could have gone wrong, but it clicked and worked in every way. The performances from the cast (especially Michelle Yeoh) were phenomenal. The script is well written and unique. The technical aspects of the movie are superb. I loved that the movie was fun and emotional in equal parts. It was entertaining and moving in all the ways I think a movie should be. 2. Avatar: The Way of Water The first Avatar from 2009, was one of my favorite films of that year. For some reason there’s a bit of James Cameron backlash, but to me he’s underappreciated. He’s a brilliant filmmaker. He’s a fantastic director and world-builder. I had a strong emotional reaction to this movie and in spite of its three hour plus runtime, I remained attentive and engaged the whole film. It’s a beautiful movie. 3. Women Talking Such an amazing ensemble cast (Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, Judith Ivey, Ben Whishaw, and Frances McDormand!) and an extraordinary script from Sarah Polley. This film conveys so much, so subtly. In another year with weaker competitors, this would’ve ranked higher. 4. The Fabelmans For me, the films I’m ranking 3-6 are all pretty close in terms of quality and how much I enjoyed them. This year produced a good crop of films! This movie was well made and Mateo Zoryan Francis-DeFord and Gabriel LaBelle were exceptional in their roles. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner did a great job with the script. 5. Top Gun: Maverick This movie is well acted and entertaining – a worthy sequel to its predecessor. I thought the story was good, and I enjoyed it. It doesn’t hurt that Jay Ellis, Glen Powell, and Miles Teller are all very attractive! 6. The Banshees of Inisherin This is another ranking that feels a little low, but it’s a testament to the nominees in this category. The superb acting performances and writing are what make this movie worthwhile. It’s a bit weird at times, and sometimes that worked, and sometimes it didn’t. Overall, I thought the movie was well made, but missing just a little something that I couldn’t quite figure out. 7. All Quiet on the Western Front It’s difficult for me to rate and review a war movie for a few reasons. I’m not a fan of gore or violence, and that’s what war is. The movie does a good job at showing the horrific conditions of war. One thing I did like about the film was seeing the contrast between the young men fighting and the men in charge of their respective countries and militaries. Showing the hunger verses the opulence was a good technique. The technical aspects of the film were well done and the cinematography was beautiful. 8. Triangle of Sadness Oh, wow. This movie is strange. It’s a dark comedy that did make me laugh in parts. The story is interesting – and never goes quite how you think it’s going. I’m squeamish, so the middle part of the film wasn’t my favorite – I was pretty grossed out. I also think the script is weak at times, but the movie is worth watching. 9. TÁR I really wanted to like this film more than I did. It’s got all the right parts to make something great, but it didn’t quite work. Cate Blanchett is a great actress and is good in this movie – I’ve just seen her do better. Once again, something was missing – to me it’s a decent first/rough draft that needs some revisions. 10. Elvis For the first major biopic of one of the most famous people to ever live, this is a bit of a letdown. I’m a big fan of Baz Luhrmann, but I don’t think this is his best work. Austin Butler turns in a wonderful performance and that’s the best thing about the movie. I wasn’t a fan of the time jumps in the film – the pacing was off and weird. Just not my favorite from this year. Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once The Best Picture race seems to be settled this year. EEAAO has swept the major guild awards and set records for the most wins at the SAG Awards and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. I’m very much looking forward to this win! Its closest competitors are The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans, but I just don’t see either of them getting enough support to topple it. Best Director My Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once This race looked much tighter at the beginning of the awards season, but at this point Kwan and Scheinert have pulled ahead of Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). Again, I’m super excited about EEAAO winning several awards Sunday night because I think it’s an incredible film – plus, I love that there’s a Birmingham connection! Scheinert grew up in Birmingham, attended high school here, and last weekend at the Film Independent Spirit Awards he gave a shout out to Birmingham’s Sidewalk Film Festival! Best Actor My Pick: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin Prediction: Austin Butler, Elvis This category is pretty stacked. It was hard to pick a favorite, but I decided Farrell’s performance was the best for me. All five nominees are deserving. Watching Brendan Fraser in The Whale was a brutal experience. I probably had the most visceral reaction to The Whale compared to any other film I watched this year. Bill Nighy is a legend and his performance is quiet and understated in Living. Paul Mescal will likely win an Oscar someday – with just a few performances under his belt he’s been nominated for numerous awards already – deservedly so. Butler was the best part of Elvis, and critics and other award shows seem to love him in this role. Fraser has a chance to upset, but I’m predicting Butler wins. Best Actress My Pick: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once Prediction: Cate Blanchett, TÁR In contrast to the Best Actor category, this one is a bit weaker – which is odd, because I like actresses better than actors. I want Yeoh to win this award so badly! I think she was amazing and she’s had such a stellar career. I think this race is incredibly close between her and Blanchett. I’m predicting Blanchett based on Academy history in the last few years…Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman; Frances McDormand over Viola Davis. If Blanchett does prevail on Sunday night, she’ll join an elite group of actors with three or more acting wins – the all-time leader Katharine Hepburn with four, and then three apiece for Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, and Walter Brennan. Best Supporting Actor My Pick: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once Prediction: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once I have loved seeing Key Huy Quan’s acceptance speeches this season! I think he’s got this award in the bag, and his performance was my favorite of the five. Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan were also exceptional in The Banshees of Inisherin – that whole cast was great. Best Supporting Actress My Pick: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once Prediction: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever This is the toughest category for me both prediction wise and picking my favorite. I’ll start with my preferences – I’m giving Hsu my favorite slot because of how much I loved EEAAO. She brought so much depth to her performance and it really won me over. Hong Chau in The Whale is also phenomenal. I loved her in Watchmen, too. Jamie Lee Curtis is really great in EEAAO and I would love to see her win an Oscar. As I stated above, the entire cast of The Banshees of Inisherin is great, and that includes Kerry Condon. I think this is a three person race coming down to the wire between Angela Bassett, Condon, and Curtis. Again, I would be thrilled for any of those superbly talented women winning. Best Adapted Screenplay My Pick: Women Talking, Sarah Polley Prediction: Women Talking, Sarah Polley I wish there had been more love for Women Talking this year. I definitely think it deserved some acting nominations. I think Polley does wonders with her script (and directing), and does a wonderful job at telling this story in such an unexaggerated way. Glass Onion is easily my second favorite of this group. I hope they’ll continue to make more Knives Out films and that they keep up their excellence. I don’t think Polley has much to worry about in terms of competition – she appears set to win the Oscar. Best Original Screenplay My Pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert This is another race that seemed much tighter earlier in the season. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for Martin McDonagh to win for The Banshees of Inisherin, but I think the momentum and overall love for EEAAO will push Kwan and Scheinert to a win in this category. Other Categories I want to spotlight a few of my favorite short films nominated this year since I got the chance to see all 15. Animated: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse is my favorite and I'm glad it's predicted to win. It's full of so much heart and based on the beautiful book of the same name. My Year of Dicks is really funny and worth checking out. Documentary: My favorites were The Elephant Whisperers, How Do You Measure a Year, and The Martha Mitchell Effect. Live Action: An Irish Goodbye was definitely the best in this category. Click Here to see my prediction in all 23 categories, or use the following link: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-winners-2023-predictions/ Click Here to see a list of all the Oscar nominated films I watched this year and how I rated each of them. You can also use the following link: https://letterboxd.com/jordangpittman/list/operation-oscar-2023/by/your-rating/ Just for fun, I decided to produce this year's Academy Awards. In my estimation, the show's runtime would be about 3.5 hours. Here's a rundown of how I'd run the show...
The 95th ACADEMY AWARDS Host: Lady Gaga with special guest Elton John
The 94th Academy Awards will be presented tomorrow night, Sunday, March 27. For the last few months I've been devouring as many films as I can to prep for the show. Here are my thoughts on the nominees and my predictions of who I think will win.
Best Picture Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review. 1. CODA Of the 10 films nominated, this is the one I could see myself going back to and watching multiple times. It has a wonderful, talented cast, and is an emotional, heart-warming story. 2. Belfast This film is really well made. Jude Hill gives such an incredible performance and I think he absolutely deserved a nod for Best Actor. The rest of the cast is phenomenal, too. 3. West Side Story My top three picks could easily shift from day to day and this is another film I could see myself watching multiple times. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg did a wonderful job remaking a classic movie. I was enthralled with the cast and their performances. 4. The Power of the Dog All of my thoughts on this movie must be prefaced by saying I loved Thomas Savage's novel. Sometimes a film adaptation just can't quite capture all the nuances of a book. I think Jane Campion did a decent job with the material though, and all of the actors gave understated, but great performances. I was just left wanting a little bit more. 5. Drive My Car I know there's a lot of movie length discourse this year...Drive My Car clocks in at 2 hours and 59 minutes, making it the longest film of the 10. I think a movie should be as long as it needs to be, but this one was a bit of a slog. Looking back, I'm not sure exactly what cuts could be made, but it could have been condensed some. I think the screenplay is a bit repetitive, but once again the acting really boosts this film. 6. King Richard This movie is a fascinating look at how tennis superstars Serena and Venus Williams got their start in the sport with their father as their first coach and champion. I'm so happy to see Aunjanue Ellis getting some love. 7. Dune Science fiction is not typically my favorite genre, but the story of Dune is compelling. There were some weird edits in the movie that knocked it down a few slots for me, but other technical aspects of the film are impeccable. 8. Don't Look Up I have so many opinions about this movie that I should probably dedicate an entire post to it. In short, the metaphor of the world on the cusp of destruction due to an asteroid heading to Earth (instead of climate change) is smart. But, knowing the actions of Adam McKay and David Sirota, and how their political activism has helped put people in power that don't even believe in climate change, I can't help but be turned off. I also think the film can't find its villain. Leonardo DiCaprio was wonderful in the movie and another actor who should have been nominated for Best Actor. Meryl Streep is always great. Without spoiling the film, I'll say the ending of the film is emotional and well written. 9. Licorice Pizza The plot was a bit disjointed for me and just didn't work. It went in too many directions with too many subplots that didn't necessarily make sense. 10. Nightmare Alley This film is also not really my type of film, but I watched it with an open mind. I really enjoyed Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water (2017) so I hoped it would have more redeeming qualities, but I just couldn't get into it. The gore and violence also turned me off. Bradley Cooper and Richard Jenkins are both great in the movie. Prediction: The Power of the Dog This race turned into a rollercoaster in the last few weeks! The Power of the Dog has been the frontrunner for months now, winning the BAFTA, Critics Choice, DGA, and Golden Globe. CODA's surprise win at the PGA Awards has a lot of Oscar pundits shifting their predictions. I tend to think The Power of the Dog will still prevail, but a win for CODA or even Belfast wouldn't be too shocking at this point. Best Director My Pick: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story Prediction: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog This category seems pretty locked down. It would be pretty shocking if Campion doesn't win. I'd say if there are any spoilers, Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) or Spielberg would be most likely. I think Lin-Manuel Miranda deserved a nomination for tick, tick... BOOM! and Denis Villeneuve (Dune) also should have been nominated. Best Actress My Pick: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye Prediction: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye This is probably the most volatile race in the top categories. Some pundits see a late surge for Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), but I just don't see that happening. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) have both been considered frontrunners at one point, but Chastain's Critics Choice and SAG wins have likely propelled her to her first Oscar win after two previous losses. Don't count Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) out though. Best Actor My Pick: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM! Prediction: Will Smith, King Richard Will Smith has swept this award season so he is all but certain to win. I think his performance in King Richard was great, but I was absolutely enamored with Garfield's. Benedict Cumberbatch is probably the most likely runner-up. I will be happy with either of those three winning. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up) and Jude Hill (Belfast) should have been nominated. Best Supporting Actress My Pick: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story Prediction: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story This race also seems locked up and for good reason...DeBose is delightful in the film and absolutely deserves this award. Best Supporting Actor My Pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog Prediction: Troy Kotsur, CODA This category is pretty stacked! I thought Kotsur, Smit-McPhee, and Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) all gave fantastic performances. It was tough for me to pick a favorite. Kotsur has won most of the awards this season so I expect him to prevail at the Oscars, but don't count out Smit-McPhee. Best Adapted Screenplay My Pick: CODA, Sian Heder Prediction: The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion CODA could definitely win, but I think Campion's going to triumph. Best Original Screenplay My Pick: The Worst Person in the World, Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier Prediction: Belfast, Kenneth Branagh Another category that is very much up in the air. I went with Branagh, but Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) is definitely in contention. If my pick doesn't win, I'd be happy with a Belfast win. Final Thoughts tick, tick... BOOM! absolutely should've been nominated for more awards including Best Picture and Best Director (Lin-Manuel Miranda). It's such a great film. Speaking of Miranda, if he wins for Best Original Song ("Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto) he will have an EGOT -- an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony Award. I would love for him to pull that off, but it seems unlikely this year. As much as I enjoyed Encanto I would love for Luca to win Best Animated Feature Film. It didn't get as much love as it deserved. One film I highly recommend this year is Flee, which makes history for being nominated for Best Animated Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature, and Best International Feature Film. It's the story of an Afghan refugee who is gay and it's just a really touching movie. I would love for it to win in the documentary category. Here's a link to my full predictions: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-winners-2022-predictions/ Enjoy the show! Tonight is the 93rd annual Academy Awards and for the 13th year in a row I've completed Operation Oscar -- watching all the films nominated in the major categories. Here is my recap of the movies along with my predictions and what I'm rooting for. Best Picture Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review. 1. Promising Young Woman This film has a brilliant script and brilliant direction. I love that you never really know where it's going. It's unpredictable and captivating with a stellar ending. Easily my favorite of the eight films nominated for Best Picture. 2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 Written and directed by Aaron Sorkin -- so it's almost impossible for it to be bad. It's amazing how many parallels can be made from the events surrounding the 1968 Democratic National Convention 50 years ago, to today. Another great script and a wonderful ensemble cast. 3. Minari Not to take away from any other parts of this beautiful film, but the acting is the highlight of the movie -- Steven Yeun, Han Ye-ri, Alan Kim, Noel Kate Cho, and Youn Yuh-jung all did an incredible job. It's a unique take on the American Dream. 4. The Father A heartbreaking movie about the ails of dementia and growing old -- one that was is all too familiar for many families. 5. Sound of Metal This film makes great use of silence, sound, and music. Great performances from Riz Ahmed, Olivie Cooke, and Paul Raci. 6. Nomadland The cinematography and feel of this movie were excellent -- in any other year this would've been ranked higher. 7. Judas and the Black Messiah I really like the story, but the film wasn't put together well. Martin Sheen was great and Daniel Kaluuya was superb. 8. Mank I thought this movie could've been much more entertaining and interesting based on its subject matter. Prediction: Nomadland There's not a lot of suspense in the Best Picture race this year -- Nomadland seems to have it wrapped up. Best Director Prediction: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland My Pick: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman I would've nominated Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7 over David Fincher for Mank. Fincher is a great director, but this isn't his best work. It's so wonderful that two women are nominated this year -- that shouldn't be a rarity. Best Actor Prediction: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom My Pick: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom This is a really incredible lineup -- Riz Ahmed, Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, and Steven Yeun all gave strong performances. I'd be happy with any of them winning. Best Actress Prediction: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom My Pick: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom This race is so up in the air this year -- I haven't seen anything like it in the last decade or so. It seems to be pretty much down to Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan. They were both wonderful in their films and either of them winning would excite me. Frances McDormand and Andra Day seem to have slipped in the waning days of Oscar voting (but wow at Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday). Vanessa Kirby seems to be solidly in the fifth place slot, but her portrayal of a grieving mother in Pieces of a Woman was gut-wrenching. Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah My Pick: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah Daniel Kaluuya as Fred Hampton was the best performance of the year. Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari My Pick: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari Glenn Close and Olivia Colman aren't out of the running -- but if my predictions hold true, it would be the first year in the Academy's history that actors of color sweep the four acting categories. Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland My Pick: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman My Pick: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman I'm also really rooting for Diane Warren who is nominated for the 12th time in the Best Song category! Check out my full picks: www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-2021-predictions/ Tonight is the 92nd annual Academy Awards and for the 12th year in a row I’ve completed Operation Oscar -- watching all the films nominated in the major categories. Here is my yearly recap of the movies along with my predictions.
Best Picture Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review. 1. Parasite I really loved the tone shifts in this movie. It managed to be humorous, sad, and suspenseful at different times, and sometimes all at once. It was original and wasn’t predictable. I hate that the actors were overlooked in the acting categories, but I’m glad the film has done so well this award season. 2. Jojo Rabbit This movie surprised me -- I didn’t think I was going to like it when I started it. It was definitely weird, but it had a good message and was a well made film. Scarlett Johannson did a wonderful job and I think Roman Griffin Davis absolutely should have received an acting nomination. 3. Little Women This is the movie I’m most likely to watch multiple times. Greta Gerwig did a wonderful job writing a fresh script for a story that has been told so many times. The star-studded cast all did a fantastic job with their roles. 4. 1917 At my best estimation, there have been 15+ war movies in the 12 years I’ve been doing Operation Oscar. So, did we need another one? It wasn’t particularly good or bad to me, but it was a beautifully shot film. I thought George MacKay did a wonderful job, and Sam Mendes makes great movies. 5. Ford v Ferrari I would’ve liked this movie more if it hadn’t totally glossed over a major plot point near the ending. There was a lot of hype and then a bit of a flat ending. Christian Bale is a great actor and gives a stellar performance. 6. Marriage Story The writing was a bit overwrought and came across as pretentious at times. Laura Dern absolutely makes this movie. 7. The Irishman Jimmy Hoffa and his disappearance are fascinating subjects -- so I’m not sure how Martin Scorsese managed to make a mostly boring film. It was way too long and needed more action. 8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood I’m not a Tarantino fan, but this movie wasn’t terrible. The story was a bit weird, but the acting was good. 9. Joker I didn’t expect to like this movie, but I didn’t like it for different reasons than I imagined. I mostly just didn’t get the point and thought it wasn’t a well made movie. There are good things about it -- good acting, good cinematography -- but for me overall it just wasn’t Best Picture worthy. Prediction: 1917 I’m pretty confident in my pick, but I wouldn’t be stunned if Parasite or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood pull off an upset. Best Director Prediction: Sam Mendes, 1917 My pick: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite Greta Gerwig should’ve been nominated for Little Women. Best Actor Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker My pick: Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes Pryce was transformative as Pope Francis and I enjoyed that film much more than I was expecting. Best Actress Prediction: Renée Zellweger, Judy My pick: Charlize Theron, Bombshell Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood My pick: Al Pacino, The Irishman Pacino is one of the best actors of our time and he was by far the best part of The Irishman to me. Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Laura Dern, Marriage Story My pick: Margot Robbie, Bombshell I will be thrilled when Dern wins her first Oscar tonight and she was my favorite part of Marriage Story. She did a great job in the role, but for me I give Robbie a slight edge. I liked the depth and range she brought to her performance in Bombshell. This category is the toughest for me this year because all of these performances were good. Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit My pick: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite My pick: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite It’s possible 1917 or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood walk away with this award, but I’m banking on Parasite. I thought Knives Out was a good film and a well written screenplay, but there were a few parts in the movie where I didn’t like the way the story was told instead of shown. Check out my full picks: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-2020/ Tonight, the ninetieth annual Academy Awards will be given out in 24 categories recognizing achievement and excellence in film. For the tenth consecutive year, I have seen all of the films nominated in the major categories. Here are my thoughts and predictions.
BEST PICTURE Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review. 1. Call Me By Your Name This was by far my favorite film of 2017. First of all, it’s just a beautiful movie. I cannot believe it didn’t get a nomination for Cinematography! (Props to the Film Independent Spirit Awards for acknowledging Sayombhu Mukdeeprom’s amazing work.) James Ivory did an excellent job adapting André Aciman’s novel into a screenplay, though I hate so many subplots had to be removed. The acting in the movie is superb, and everyone in the film does such a great job depicting the agony of a crush and first love. 2. Lady Bird Greta Gerwig wrote a fresh, unique script that I felt myself relating to quite a bit. (Saoirse Ronan’s titular character and I are the same age—both high school graduates in 2003.) This is another film where the acting was great. Definitely one of the best made films in 2017. 3. The Post It’s hard to go wrong with a Steven Spielberg film starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, along with a stellar supporting cast featuring too many fantastic actors to name. This film’s strengths are also its weaknesses. It doesn’t rely on flashy storytelling or inflated drama. The story speaks for itself. Yet, there are times when as a viewer I wanted a bit more. It’s an understated drama that is unfortunately as timely as ever. 4. The Shape of Water This is so not the type of movie I typically go for, but I enjoyed it far more than I expected to. I love the underlying message of love and acceptance, and Sally Hawkins was absolutely brilliant in the film. I had a few problems with the ending—it just seemed rushed. But overall, I really liked it. 5. Get Out I’m also not typically a fan of horror movies, but Jordan Peele did a great job of not going overboard with violence, but still making it suspenseful. There were some weird parts and acting choices in the movie, but overall it was unique and captivating. Daniel Kaluuya was fantastic, and I’m excited to see what else he does in the future. 6. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri I loved parts of this movie and I hated parts of this movie. There were scenes that made me laugh, scenes that made me cry, and then scenes that made me angry (for multiple reasons). I’ve heard the word “divisive” used to describe this movie multiple times throughout the award season, and I couldn’t agree more. I will say this—it’s certainly a movie I haven’t been able to get out of my head. I feel like this movie could be dissected for hours and hours. 7. Darkest Hour I like historical dramas, and this was a decent movie with a decent lead actor. I wouldn’t personally pick it as one of the best films of the year. 8. Phantom Thread This is another movie that I had a lot of opinions on. Again, I thought the acting in this movie was well done. Daniel Day-Lewis is incredibly talented, and gives a great performance. I just didn’t like his character or the film. The plot was interesting, but it just didn’t work for me for several reasons. 9. Dunkirk This movie should have been amazing. It’s a fascinating subject with a great cast, and Christopher Nolan is a superb director. But, nothing about this movie worked for me. It was confusing and all over the place. I was disappointed and wanted so much more from this movie. PREDICTION: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri There are several frontrunners this year and it wouldn’t be too surprising for any of them to win, but I think Three Billboards wins out over The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Dunkirk. BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water MY PICK: I’ll be happy with del Toro’s win. I wouldn’t mind Greta Gerwig winning, either. BEST ACTOR PREDICTION: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour MY PICK: I’d definitely vote for Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name, and I’ll be rooting for him to upset in this category. I also think Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out was amazing. BEST ACTRESS PREDICTION: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri MY PICK: Frances McDormand is great, but I’d vote for Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water. That was one of the best performances I’ve seen in a long time. I also thought Margo Robbie – I, Tonya was fantastic. This is always a tough category, because all of these women are excellent. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri MY PICK: To me this is a pretty weak category, in spite of all of these actors being talented. I really think Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name deserved a nomination. Out of the choices, I’d probably go with Rockwell. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTION: Allison Janney – I, Tonya MY PICK: Allison Janney all the way! I love her, and she really nailed this role. She’s very deserving of this honor. No one else comes close to me, although Mary J. Blige – Mudbound was wonderful, too. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTION: Get Out – Written by Jordan Peele MY PICK: This is a really great crop of screenplays. I would be happy for any of them winning (Three Billboards would be my least favorite). I’d probably vote for Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTION: Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory based on the novel by André Aciman MY PICK: Definitely James Ivory! I love Aaron Sorkin, and I’m happy that he got another nomination, but Molly’s Game isn’t his best work. I’ve also seen most of the animated films and they’re exceptional this year. Coco was my favorite, and I’m rooting for it to win, but The Breadwinner was a great story and the artwork in Loving Vincent was just incredible. I was also lucky enough to see all of the short films nominated in the three shorts categories. I’ll be rooting for Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Documentary), The Silent Child (Live Action), and Negative Space (Animated) Check out my full Oscar predictions and be sure to watch the show on ABC tonight at 8:00 p.m. CST! https://www.goldderby.com/view-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-2018/ Best Picture
The nine films nominated for Best Picture were all fairly enjoyable. Hidden Figures is the film I liked the most and would most enjoy watching repeatedly, but I think Arrival is a better film. It’s unpredictable, and absolutely beautiful. La La Land is unique and I love musicals. I thought the story and songs were good and I think the ending was well written. Moonlight has such great potential, but I felt like it was lacking something; it just felt a bit incomplete. Lion was a great story and Dev Patel is a great actor. Fences works much better as a play than a film, but the acting is incredible. Viola Davis is perfection. Manchester by the Sea is unnecessarily sad, but again great acting. Andrew Garfield’s performance in Hacksaw Ridge was really the only thing I enjoyed about the movie. The other performances (especially Vince Vaughn) were overacted and the script was trite at times. It’s another story with great potential, but it just isn’t a well made film. Hell or High Water seems out of place on this list. Not a bad movie, but in my opinion not one of the best films of the year. My ranking of the nine films is below. Should Win: Arrival - I would be happy with Hidden Figures winning as well. Moonlight winning would be a nice way to makeup for Brokeback Mountain's loss in 2006. Will Win: La La Land – This race seems to be pretty locked up. If anything could upset it would be Moonlight or even less likely, Hidden Figures, but either would be a fairly big surprise.
Best Director Should Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land Will Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land – This should be a close race between Chazelle and Moonlight’s Barry Jenkins. Best Actor Should Win: Denzel Washington – Fences Will Win: Denzel Washington – Fences – This is a close race between Washington and Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. Best Actress Should Win: Isabelle Huppert – Elle – No disrespect to Huppert whose performance in Elle is incredible, but this is a weaker field than usual. I would love to have seen nominations for Amy Adams in Arrival and Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. I’m thrilled of course for Meryl Streep’s record breaking twentieth nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins. Will Win: Emma Stone – La La Land – I think Stone will more than likely win, but don’t be surprised if Isabelle Huppert pulls off an upset. Best Supporting Actor Should Win: Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea – I thought Hedges’ performance was breathtaking and heartbreaking. I’m a big fan of Mahershala Ali, and will be happy for him to win, but I would love to see Hedges go home with the Oscar. Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight – This seems to be a sure bet. Best Supporting Actress Should Win: Viola Davis – Fences – This is the easiest category for sure. Davis is brilliant in this role (just like she’s brilliant in everything). I wish more of the women from Hidden Figures had been nominated in this category, particularly Taraji P. Henson. Her scene time is incredibly short, but Laura Linney is phenomenal in Nocturnal Animals and I would’ve been happy to see her nominated as well. Will Win: Viola Davis – Fences – This race is the one I’m most certain of. Davis will win her first Oscar. Best Adapted Screenplay Should Win: Eric Heisserer – Arrival Will Win: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight – The screenplay categories are always some of the more unpredictable awards on Oscar night, but Jenkins seems to have this award in the bag. Best Original Screeplay Should Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land – The Lobster (Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos) is so weird, but really good. La La Land is a great script and film though, and I’d love to see him win. Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea – Again, these categories can be hard to predict, but unless La La Land is really sweeping, I expect Lonergan to win. |
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