Operation Oscar, 2022

The 94th Academy Award​s will be presented tomorrow night, Sunday, March 27. For the last few months I've been devouring as many films as I can to prep for the show. Here are my thoughts on the nominees and my predictions of who I think will win.

Best Picture
Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review.

1. CODA
Of the 10 films nominated, this is the one I could see myself going back to and watching multiple times. It has a wonderful, talented cast, and is an emotional, heart-warming story. 

2. Belfast
This film is really well made. Jude Hill gives such an incredible performance and I think he absolutely deserved a nod for Best Actor. The rest of the cast is phenomenal, too.

3. West Side Story
My top three picks could easily shift from day to day and this is another film I could see myself watching multiple times. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg did a wonderful job remaking a classic movie. I was enthralled with the cast and their performances.

4. The Power of the Dog
All of my thoughts on this movie must be prefaced by saying I loved Thomas Savage's novel. Sometimes a film adaptation just can't quite capture all the nuances of a book. I think Jane Campion did a decent job with the material though, and all of the actors gave understated, but great performances. I was just left wanting a little bit more.

5. Drive My Car
I know there's a lot of movie length discourse this year...Drive My Car clocks in at 2 hours and 59 minutes, making it the longest film of the 10. I think a movie should be as long as it needs to be, but this one was a bit of a slog. Looking back, I'm not sure exactly what cuts could be made, but it could have been condensed some. I think the screenplay is a bit repetitive, but once again the acting really boosts this film.

6. King Richard
This movie is a fascinating look at how tennis superstars Serena and Venus Williams got their start in the sport with their father as their first coach and champion. I'm so happy to see Aunjanue Ellis getting some love.

7. Dune
Science fiction is not typically my favorite genre, but the story of Dune is compelling. There were some weird edits in the movie that knocked it down a few slots for me, but other technical aspects of the film are impeccable.

8. Don't Look Up
I have so many opinions about this movie that I should probably dedicate an entire post to it. In short, the metaphor of the world on the cusp of destruction due to an asteroid heading to Earth (instead of climate change) is smart. But, knowing the actions of Adam McKay and David Sirota, and how their political activism has helped put people in power that don't even believe in climate change, I can't help but be turned off. I also think the film can't find its villain. Leonardo DiCaprio was wonderful in the movie and another actor who should have been nominated for Best Actor. Meryl Streep is always great. Without spoiling the film, I'll say the ending of the film is emotional and well written. 

9. Licorice Pizza
The plot was a bit disjointed for me and just didn't work. It went in too many directions with too many subplots that didn't necessarily make sense.

10. Nightmare Alley
This film is also not really my type of film, but I watched it with an open mind. I really enjoyed Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water (2017) so I hoped it would have more redeeming qualities, but I just couldn't get into it. The gore and violence also turned me off. Bradley Cooper and Richard Jenkins are both great in the movie.

Prediction: The Power of the Dog
This race turned into a rollercoaster in the last few weeks! The Power of the Dog has been the frontrunner for months now, winning the BAFTA, Critics Choice, DGA, and Golden Globe. CODA's surprise win at the PGA Awards has a lot of Oscar pundits shifting their predictions. I tend to think The Power of the Dog will still prevail, but a win for CODA or even Belfast wouldn't be too shocking at this point.

Best Director

My Pick: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Prediction: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
This category seems pretty locked down. It would be pretty shocking if Campion doesn't win. I'd say if there are any spoilers, Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) or Spielberg would be most likely.
I think Lin-Manuel Miranda deserved a nomination for tick, tick... BOOM! and Denis Villeneuve (Dune) also should have been nominated.

Best Actress

My Pick: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Prediction: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
This is probably the most volatile race in the top categories. Some pundits see a late surge for Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), but I just don't see that happening. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) have both been considered frontrunners at one point, but Chastain's Critics Choice and SAG wins have likely propelled her to her first Oscar win after two previous losses. Don't count Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) out though.

Best Actor

My Pick: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!
Prediction: Will Smith, King Richard
Will Smith has swept this award season so he is all but certain to win. I think his performance in King Richard was great, but I was absolutely enamored with Garfield's. Benedict Cumberbatch is probably the most likely runner-up. I will be happy with either of those three winning.
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up) and Jude Hill (Belfast) should have been nominated.

Best Supporting Actress

My Pick: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Prediction: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
This race also seems locked up and for good reason...DeBose is delightful in the film and absolutely deserves this award.

Best Supporting Actor

My Pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Prediction: Troy Kotsur, CODA
This category is pretty stacked! I thought Kotsur, Smit-McPhee, and Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) all gave fantastic performances. It was tough for me to pick a favorite. Kotsur has won most of the awards this season so I expect him to prevail at the Oscars, but don't count out Smit-McPhee.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Pick: CODA, Sian Heder
Prediction: The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion
CODA could definitely win, but I think Campion's going to triumph.

Best Original Screenplay

My Pick: The Worst Person in the World, Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Prediction: Belfast, Kenneth Branagh
Another category that is very much up in the air. I went with Branagh, but Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) is definitely in contention. If my pick doesn't win, I'd be happy with a Belfast win.

Final Thoughts
tick, tick... BOOM! absolutely should've been nominated for more awards including Best Picture and Best Director (Lin-Manuel Miranda). It's such a great film. Speaking of Miranda, if he wins for Best Original Song ("Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto) he will have an EGOT -- an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony Award. I would love for him to pull that off, but it seems unlikely this year.
As much as I enjoyed Encanto I would love for Luca to win Best Animated Feature Film. It didn't get as much love as it deserved.
One film I highly recommend this year is Flee, which makes history for being nominated for Best Animated Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature, and Best International Feature Film. It's the story of an Afghan refugee who is gay and it's just a really touching movie. I would love for it to win in the documentary category.

Here's a link to my full predictions: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-winners-2022-predictions/

Enjoy the show!