Operation Oscar, 2023

The 95th Academy Award​s will be presented tomorrow night at 7 p.m. CDT, Sunday, March 12. The show will be broadcast in the US on ABC. For the last few months I've been devouring as many films as I can to prepare for the show. Here are my thoughts on the nominees and my predictions of who I think will win.

Best Picture

Unlike the rest of the categories where Academy members vote for one winner, the Best Picture category is determined by a preferential ballot where each choice is ranked. Here is my personal ranking of each of the nominees with a brief review.

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
I loved this movie. There were 100 ways this could have gone wrong, but it clicked and worked in every way. The performances from the cast (especially Michelle Yeoh) were phenomenal. The script is well written and unique. The technical aspects of the movie are superb. I loved that the movie was fun and emotional in equal parts. It was entertaining and moving in all the ways I think a movie should be.

2. Avatar: The Way of Water
The first Avatar from 2009, was one of my favorite films of that year. For some reason there’s a bit of James Cameron backlash, but to me he’s underappreciated. He’s a brilliant filmmaker. He’s a fantastic director and world-builder. I had a strong emotional reaction to this movie and in spite of its three hour plus runtime, I remained attentive and engaged the whole film. It’s a beautiful movie.

3. Women Talking
Such an amazing ensemble cast (Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, Judith Ivey, Ben Whishaw, and Frances McDormand!) and an extraordinary script from Sarah Polley. This film conveys so much, so subtly. In another year with weaker competitors, this would’ve ranked higher.

4. The Fabelmans
For me, the films I’m ranking 3-6 are all pretty close in terms of quality and how much I enjoyed them. This year produced a good crop of films! This movie was well made and Mateo Zoryan Francis-DeFord and Gabriel LaBelle were exceptional in their roles. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner did a great job with the script.

5. Top Gun: Maverick
This movie is well acted and entertaining – a worthy sequel to its predecessor. I thought the story was good, and I enjoyed it. It doesn’t hurt that Jay Ellis, Glen Powell, and Miles Teller are all very attractive!

6. The Banshees of Inisherin
This is another ranking that feels a little low, but it’s a testament to the nominees in this category. The superb acting performances and writing are what make this movie worthwhile. It’s a bit weird at times, and sometimes that worked, and sometimes it didn’t. Overall, I thought the movie was well made, but missing just a little something that I couldn’t quite figure out.

7. All Quiet on the Western Front
It’s difficult for me to rate and review a war movie for a few reasons. I’m not a fan of gore or violence, and that’s what war is. The movie does a good job at showing the horrific conditions of war. One thing I did like about the film was seeing the contrast between the young men fighting and the men in charge of their respective countries and militaries. Showing the hunger verses the opulence was a good technique. The technical aspects of the film were well done and the cinematography was beautiful.

8. Triangle of Sadness
Oh, wow. This movie is strange. It’s a dark comedy that did make me laugh in parts. The story is interesting – and never goes quite how you think it’s going. I’m squeamish, so the middle part of the film wasn’t my favorite – I was pretty grossed out. I also think the script is weak at times, but the movie is worth watching.

9. TÁR
I really wanted to like this film more than I did. It’s got all the right parts to make something great, but it didn’t quite work. Cate Blanchett is a great actress and is good in this movie – I’ve just seen her do better. Once again, something was missing – to me it’s a decent first/rough draft that needs some revisions.

10. Elvis
For the first major biopic of one of the most famous people to ever live, this is a bit of a letdown. I’m a big fan of Baz Luhrmann, but I don’t think this is his best work. Austin Butler turns in a wonderful performance and that’s the best thing about the movie. I wasn’t a fan of the time jumps in the film – the pacing was off and weird. Just not my favorite from this year.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Best Picture race seems to be settled this year. EEAAO has swept the major guild awards and set records for the most wins at the SAG Awards and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. I’m very much looking forward to this win! Its closest competitors are The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans, but I just don’t see either of them getting enough support to topple it.

Best Director

My Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once

This race looked much tighter at the beginning of the awards season, but at this point Kwan and Scheinert have pulled ahead of Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). Again, I’m super excited about EEAAO winning several awards Sunday night because I think it’s an incredible film – plus, I love that there’s a Birmingham connection! Scheinert grew up in Birmingham, attended high school here, and last weekend at the Film Independent Spirit Awards he gave a shout out to Birmingham’s Sidewalk Film Festival!

Best Actor

My Pick: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Prediction: Austin Butler, Elvis

This category is pretty stacked. It was hard to pick a favorite, but I decided Farrell’s performance was the best for me. All five nominees are deserving. Watching Brendan Fraser in The Whale was a brutal experience. I probably had the most visceral reaction to The Whale compared to any other film I watched this year. Bill Nighy is a legend and his performance is quiet and understated in Living. Paul Mescal will likely win an Oscar someday – with just a few performances under his belt he’s been nominated for numerous awards already – deservedly so. Butler was the best part of Elvis, and critics and other award shows seem to love him in this role. Fraser has a chance to upset, but I’m predicting Butler wins.

Best Actress

My Pick: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, TÁR

In contrast to the Best Actor category, this one is a bit weaker – which is odd, because I like actresses better than actors. I want Yeoh to win this award so badly! I think she was amazing and she’s had such a stellar career. I think this race is incredibly close between her and Blanchett. I’m predicting Blanchett based on Academy history in the last few years…Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman; Frances McDormand over Viola Davis. If Blanchett does prevail on Sunday night, she’ll join an elite group of actors with three or more acting wins – the all-time leader Katharine Hepburn with four, and then three apiece for Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, and Walter Brennan.

Best Supporting Actor

My Pick: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Prediction: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

I have loved seeing Key Huy Quan’s acceptance speeches this season! I think he’s got this award in the bag, and his performance was my favorite of the five. Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan were also exceptional in The Banshees of Inisherin – that whole cast was great.

Best Supporting Actress

My Pick: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Prediction: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

This is the toughest category for me both prediction wise and picking my favorite. I’ll start with my preferences – I’m giving Hsu my favorite slot because of how much I loved EEAAO. She brought so much depth to her performance and it really won me over. Hong Chau in The Whale is also phenomenal. I loved her in Watchmen, too. Jamie Lee Curtis is really great in EEAAO and I would love to see her win an Oscar. As I stated above, the entire cast of The Banshees of Inisherin is great, and that includes Kerry Condon. I think this is a three person race coming down to the wire between Angela Bassett, Condon, and Curtis. Again, I would be thrilled for any of those superbly talented women winning.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Pick: Women Talking, Sarah Polley
Prediction: Women Talking, Sarah Polley

I wish there had been more love for Women Talking this year. I definitely think it deserved some acting nominations. I think Polley does wonders with her script (and directing), and does a wonderful job at telling this story in such an unexaggerated way. Glass Onion is easily my second favorite of this group. I hope they’ll continue to make more Knives Out films and that they keep up their excellence. I don’t think Polley has much to worry about in terms of competition – she appears set to win the Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

My Pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert 
Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

This is another race that seemed much tighter earlier in the season. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for Martin McDonagh to win for The Banshees of Inisherin, but I think the momentum and overall love for EEAAO will push Kwan and Scheinert to a win in this category.

Other Categories

I want to spotlight a few of my favorite short films nominated this year since I got the chance to see all 15.
Animated: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse is my favorite and I'm glad it's predicted to win. It's full of so much heart and based on the beautiful book of the same name. My Year of Dicks is really funny and worth checking out.
Documentary: My favorites were The Elephant Whisperers, How Do You Measure a Year, and The Martha Mitchell Effect. 
Live Action: An Irish Goodbye was definitely the best in this category.

Click Here to see my prediction in all 23 categories, or use the following link: https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jordan_pittman/oscars-winners-2023-predictions/

Click Here to see a list of all the Oscar nominated films I watched this year and how I rated each of them. You can also use the following link: https://letterboxd.com/jordangpittman/list/operation-oscar-2023/by/your-rating/​